Meta: Mark Zuckerberg reportedly plans an “Arena” prediction app to rival Polymarket and Kalshi

Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi-where users can make predictions on real-world events-may soon face an unexpected challenger. According to a new rumour, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is considering launching a similar service focused on predicting outcomes ranging from FIFA World Cup matches to the capture of Nicolas Maduro or the Nobel Peace Prize.

Meta’s rumoured prediction platform: “Arena”

Sources cited by The New York Times and CNBC say Zuckerberg has asked Meta staff to build a prediction platform. The New York Times adds that the project is a priority for Zuckerberg, as he wants to ship products that reflect changing online behaviour.

Internally, the app is reportedly known as “Arena”. It would be developed as a standalone product, separate from Meta’s social networks and messaging services. Even so, Meta would reportedly plan to leverage its huge existing user base across those apps to promote Arena to potential users.

How “Arena” would work: points rather than cash bets

Unlike Polymarket or Kalshi, Meta’s platform would not allow users to wager real money. Instead, it would reportedly use a points-based system-more like video game scoring-rather than cash gambling.

Shares fall after the report

For now, caution is warranted: Meta has not confirmed any of these details. That said, it would not be the first time Mark Zuckerberg’s company has launched an app or feature inspired by something already popular.

The New York Times report has already had an effect on markets. As CNBC notes, on 23 June, shares in DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment-companies offering similar services-fell by 2% after the article was published. Robinhood, which also operates in this space, was reportedly down as well.