Poland suspends MiG-29 transfer to Ukraine amid drone dispute, says Kosiniak-Kamysz

MiG-29s for drones: what Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said

During a recent television interview, Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Warsaw had chosen to halt the transfer of MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine because of a disagreement linked to drone production. The official, who also serves as Minister of National Defence, argued that Kyiv has substantial capacity to help build up unmanned capabilities for the Polish Armed Forces, but has so far failed to deliver what was set out in an arrangement that would have enabled the handover of the aircraft to proceed.

In his own words: “I proposed, I think, an approach based on collaboration. MiG aircraft in exchange for drones. The Ukrainians initially accepted it, but they did not implement it, so Ukraine has no MiG aircraft because Poland has neither its drones nor the capability to operate them.” He also added, when referring to Ukrainian support for countries in the Middle East: “This means they have the capacity to provide military equipment, which is sometimes symbolic, but very important, so that they share their knowledge and some of their technology. They are really very good at it. And they accepted this and withdrew from those agreements.”

Poland’s military aid to Ukraine and the stalled MiG-29 arrangement

Kosiniak-Kamysz went on to say that Poland had made significant donations of military equipment to Ukraine since the war began, many of them without any conditions attached; this included an initial batch of MiG-29 fighters. In his view, even though Poland was governed by a different administration at the time, it was the right decision when it was taken. Even so, he stressed that “solidarity” means supporting a partner when you have the ability to do so, but that this is a path both sides must walk.

So far, Poland has not provided further detail on the precise terms of the alleged agreement reached with Ukraine, meaning it is not possible to state what type of drones Warsaw wanted. A similar silence has prevailed in Kyiv: President Zelensky’s administration has also avoided commenting on the Polish complaint, just as it has done regarding comparable remarks made recently by the US presidency, which claimed that the United States received no compensation for the assistance it sent and that European treasuries should bear the costs.

Political knock-on effects for Ukraine and the European Union

What began as a dispute seemingly confined to defence is now starting to generate political consequences that matter for Ukraine’s push for stronger security guarantees after any eventual end to the war against Russia. When asked about Ukraine potentially joining the European Union, Deputy Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz said: “We must not glorify those who destroy European co-operation. Ukraine will not join the European Union just because of its flag (…). No one will tell us how to vote in favour of the accession of a country to the EU.”

In another symbolic move aligned with that message, the Ukrainian president himself was also stripped of a Polish honour, the Order of the White Eagle.

The cost for Ukraine’s air force

Finally, it is worth noting that the dispute between Kyiv and Warsaw is proving highly costly for an Ukrainian Air Force that urgently needs additional combat aircraft. According to the specialist outlet The Warzone, the service has already recorded the loss of at least 38 MiG-29 fighters and 20 Su-27s, as well as another 4 F-16s and one of the Mirage 2000s supplied by France.

The Polish fleet referenced above is currently said to consist of between 10 and 14 aircraft-nowhere near enough to close the gaps, but potentially capable of providing a temporary respite until more Western-built aircraft arrive.

Images used for illustrative purposes